This image taken by NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope shows the comet Encke riding along its pebbly trail of debris. Every October, Earth passes through Encke’s wake, resulting in the well-known Taurid meteor shower. Credit: NASA/ JPL-Caltech/ Univ. of Minn. CC BY-SA.

A new study of the Earth’s nearby neighbourhood has eased concerns over possible ‘doomsday’ asteroid swarm.

A University of Maryland astronomer has found there are fewer dangerously large space rocks in Earth’s cosmic neighbourhood than previously estimated.

Using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) telescope to survey large expanses of sky, a team of researchers led by the University of Maryland investigated a stream of space debris known to drift near Earth called the Taurid swarm.

The Taurids, which are thought to be remnants of a large comet called Encke, can be seen from Earth as highly visible meteor showers in October and November.

This region has long intrigued astronomers due to its potential for harbouring hidden, dangerous asteroids, but researchers could not confirm or disprove the existence of such hazards – until now.

Quanzhi Ye, who supervised the project and is an assistant research scientist in UMD’s Department of Astronomy, said: “We took advantage of a rare opportunity when this swarm of asteroids passed closer to Earth, allowing us to more efficiently search for objects that could pose a threat to our planet.

“Our findings suggest that the risk of being hit by a large asteroid in the Taurid swarm is much lower than we believed, which is great news for planetary defence.”

Kilometre-class space rocks

Prior to this study, researchers speculated that the Taurid swarm contained a considerable number of large, kilometre-class space rocks left behind by a large object possibly up to 100km (62 miles) wide.

Large objects can cause regional damage if they were to impact Earth, such as the Chelyabinsk asteroid that hit Russia and injured more than 1,600 people in 2013.

Even larger objects can cause extinction-level events, such as the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs over 66 million years ago.

Ye explained: “Fortunately, we found that it’s likely there may only be a handful of asteroids – perhaps only nine to 14 of them – that fit this large size class in the swarm.

“Judging from our findings, the parent object that originally created the swarm was probably closer to 10km in diameter rather than a massive 100kmr object. While we still need to be vigilant about asteroid impacts, we can probably sleep better knowing these results.”

Comet Encke

According to Ye, the Taurid swarm holds important clues about planetary evolution, especially due to its connection to the comet Encke.

Encke, which has the one of the shortest orbital periods (the time it takes to complete one rotation around the sun) of known comets at just 3.3 years, is also unusually large and dusty for a short-period comet (orbiting the sun in 200 years or less).

Considering all available evidence, scientists believe that Encke experienced significant fragmentation in the past – and may continue to fall apart similarly in the future.  

Ye said: “Studying the Taurid swarm helps us understand how small celestial bodies like comets and asteroids form and break apart over time.

“Our research has implications not just for asteroid detection and planetary defence, but also for our broader understanding of solar system objects.”

While the study’s results are reassuring, the team believes that they also underscore the need for ongoing vigilance and improved detection capabilities.

Using advanced facilities such as the ZTF telescope, which can efficiently conduct vast sky surveys and track potentially hazardous near-Earth objects, the researchers plan to conduct follow-up observations in the coming years when the Taurid asteroid swarm passes close to Earth again.

Ye concluded: “We have opportunities in 2025 and 2026 to further refine our results. As a result, we’re excited to continue this important work.”

The group’s findings were announced at the American Astronomical Society’s Division for Planetary Sciences annual meeting on October 7, 2024.